Musings
SpaceX Stock Crash
Man, that SpaceX initial public offering was really exciting, right? The stock shares were put on the market at $135 a share, but opened trading at $150 per share and closed the first day at $160.95. The shares continued to rocket (ahem) up to $225.60 per share, before investors began realizing that the company was not in imminent danger of putting humans on Mars, or building that orbiting data center featured so prominently in the prospectus.
Trump Account Basics
The highly-publicized Trump Accounts (technically 530A accounts) are now available to families with children under the age of 18. If the child was born in the U.S. between the start of 2025 through the end of 2028, their account will be seeded with $1,000 from the government. Otherwise, the accounts can be opened for any children with a valid Social Security number who are under 18 years of age.
10 Signs Your Client Is About to Make a Bad Investment
When it comes to investing, it’s the Wild West out there. Consumers, especially those who are less experienced, are constantly bombarded with so-called opportunities to make a bundle. We’re not talking about outright fraud, but rather perfectly legal sales pitches. It’s not only new investors who fall prey; sophisticated, accredited investors do so as well.
Social Security’s Deepening Crisis
The most recent report from the Social Security Administration tells us that, absent any changes (raising tax rates, cutting benefits, changing the claiming ages etc.), the Social Security trust fund will run out of money in 2032—6 years from now.
Debt Up, Savings Down
According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, today’s consumers, on average, are saving about 2.6% of their total disposable income. This is low by historical standards, and well below the 4.3% rate recorded in January. Back in 2023 and 2024, the rate was a much healthier 6%.
What the Heck is a Fiduciary?
The financial planning profession has been pushing for more and better standards for people who give financial and investment advice, and the code name for these standards is ‘fiduciary.’
Inflation Up, Rates Up
When the Trump Administration nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as the chairperson of the Federal Reserve Board, many expected a quick announcement that the Fed would be slashing the Fed Funds rate. The tea leaves were not hard to read: President Trump demanded an aggressive rate cut, and repeatedly berated—and even criminally investigated—former Chairperson Powell for not complying. His hand-picked successor understood the assignment.
The Perils of Prediction
If you want to place a bet that the Sun won’t rise tomorrow, or (less likely) that the Cleveland Browns will dominate the next Super Bowl, you can turn to the prediction platform called Polymarket. People who believe something will happen—literally anything—can make a bet, like the $200 million wagered on whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would wear a suit at his next meeting, or the $1.3 million that was bet on whether Donald Trump would say the word ‘hottest’ during a recent meeting with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Speculative markets have emerged for the return of Jesus Christ, the existence of aliens and whether the Earth is flat.
Complaints Chronicle
Discount and retail brokerage firms have run advertisements suggesting that their customers could trade their way to buying their own private island or massive riches, but the reality is that few active traders avoid losing their nest egg, much less earn above-market gains. But now these traders have new complaints, which suggest that it’s not just safer, but also more convenient to rely on a professional.
Leveraged to the Hilt
If you’re just now returning from the Moon, then you might not have heard about the turmoil at CBS, where Stephen Colbert has hosted his last Late Show episode, where 60 Minutes seems to get a new remake every month or so, and CNN anchors worry that their independence—such as it is—are about to go the way of the passenger pigeon.
An Independent Decision
The most recent Federal Reserve Open Market Committee announcement came as no surprise: the Fed held the fed funds target steady, meaning that short-term interest rates won’t be going up or down due to the central bank’s policy. What WAS a surprise, however, is that Fed chairman Jerome Powell announced that he isn’t going anywhere.
Rates Around the World
America’s short-term interest rates of 3.5% to 3.75% might seem a bit high—until you compare them to the 37% rate that Turkish companies and citizens are expected to pay—due, of course, to that country’s extraordinarily high inflation rate. Argentinians are currently paying off short-term loans at a 29% rate. Russians, whose economy is experiencing a number of challenges currently, pay 15%.
Covid in the Rear View Mirror
If you think we’re finally past the Covid pandemic, well, you may be right. The chart comes from the Center for Disease Control, which shows the number of deaths per 100,000 population going back to the start of the epidemic. As you can see, the death rate looks like a fading heartbeat, getting weaker and weaker as it trends toward zero. The hospitalization rate shows a similar trend, suggesting that the symptoms have become weaker as the disease mutates—to the point where only 0.4% of hospitalizations are now Covid-related.
Cheap—and Expensive—at the Pump
…The U.S. is now the world’s leading petroleum producer, yet its gas prices are somewhere near the middle of the pack, far below Egypt, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Iraq (all below $2.50 a gallon).
Debt and Politics
Looking ahead to the November elections, one headline that is bound to surface is the national debt. According to the Peterson Foundation, the U.S. debt figure will pass $40 trillion by November, and is now growing by roughly a trillion dollars every five months. Last month, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that this year’s balance sheet alone will bleed red to the tune of $1.9 trillion. Under current law, the annual debt increase will come to $3.1 trillion in 2036.
2026 First Quarter Investment Report - Is the Bull Market Over?
If you look at the quarterly results as a whole, the returns so far have been roughly flat, with small losses or gains depending on the asset class. But March was a brutal month for the equities markets, which suggests that the markets are experiencing downward momentum that is largely hidden by the quarterly returns.
Oil Shock Equals Market Turbulence
The war in Iran has led to an alarming spike in oil prices, from $65 a barrel before the U.S./Israel attacks to roughly $115 as you read this. It’s not an exaggeration to call this an ‘oil shock,’ and some of the shock is felt when people refuel their cars at $4 to (in parts of California) $6 a gallon.
Rates Down. Sales Up?
Is it time to refinance your home mortgage? U.S. mortgage rates have taken an unexpected dip, to an average 6.09%, reaching their lowest level since 2022. The rate on 5-year adjustable mortgages fell to 5.23%.
The Two Faces of AI Anxiety
The investment markets have been jittery of late, and the headlines have blamed something called ‘AI anxiety.’ But what, exactly, does that mean, and is it a legitimate worry?
Crypto Crisis
The cryptocurrency world is experiencing what it always wanted: government approval and institutional credibility. President Trump has declared that he wants to establish the United States as the ‘crypto capital of the world.’ The U.S. has taken steps to integrate digital assets into the U.S. financial system and reduce regulations.