Musings

John Gesek John Gesek

Calm Before The Storm?

Investors appeared to be encouraged by an inflation report which showed an increase in core inflation of just 2.3% in March, down from February’s reading of 2.7%. Maybe the massive new tariff regime won’t raises prices after all.

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John Gesek John Gesek

The Next Tax Bill is Coming

The tax code we have lived under for the past decade was written as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which created the existing tax brackets, expanded the standard deduction, provided exemptions to the Alternative Minimum Tax and generous gift and estate tax exemption amounts, a $10,000 limit on state and local tax itemized deductions and created the Section 199A deduction for up to 20% of qualified business income for pass-through business owners.

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John Gesek John Gesek

The Markets’ Message

Long-term market watchers no doubt find it fascinating how the investment markets are engaging in a surprisingly frank dialogue with the White House over the tariffs. Whenever the news involves a hardening stance on tariffs, the markets drop. Whenever there is a pullback or pause, the markets rally.

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John Gesek John Gesek

“No Such Thing as Free Trade”

For as long as trade has existed, there have been duties, fees, levies, tariffs, or taxes that have been applied in all shapes and sizes on goods entering a country. Some folks continue to promote the idea that free trade exists, but it has never truly existed.

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John Gesek John Gesek

2025 First Quarter Investment Report

After two years of stellar returns, the U.S. investment markets have decided to give back some of their recent gains. We are not in bear market territory quite yet, but the risk of a recession, a slowdown in consumer spending and the uncertainty over trade wars and tariffs, has created some market jitters that are raining on the bull market parade.

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John Gesek John Gesek

IPO Investing - A Word of Caution

The most eye-catching news making the rounds currently is the initial public offering of the Newsmax channel, which took place when the bell rang on Monday. The stock rose an astonishing 735% on the first day of public trading, and then rose another 60% on the second day. The investment bankers were asking for $14 a share in the initial offering, but by the end of the second day, some investors were paying more than $200.

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John Gesek John Gesek

The Markets Go On Sale

It’s fair to say that the Trump Administration’s tariff announcements have not had the desired effect — at least, not immediately. The S&P 500 fell 2.7% on Monday after dropping more than 5% the previous week. Investors are clearly rattled about the uncertainty of waging escalating trade wars on America’s biggest trading partners, and there are additional concerns that the trade barriers being erected in retaliation could lead to a recession.

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John Gesek John Gesek

Student Loan Chaos

You can forgive people with student loan debt from feeling confused and somewhat frustrated. The Department of Education has shut down a key portal, without explanation, that defines the repayment amounts for millions of college-related loans.

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John Gesek John Gesek

Why Are Eggs So Expensive?

The price of eggs is in the news today—and no wonder. A dozen white Grade A chicken eggs—not the more expensive kind laid by free-range-chickens—reached a shell-shocking price of just under $5.00.

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John Gesek John Gesek

It Is Never Time to Panic

With the unprecedented restructuring wave going on across the federal government, unorthodox (to put it mildly) personnel management, appointment of candidates with little or no background in the departments they’re running and a wave of tariffs the like of which the world hasn’t seen since the 1930s, it’s easy to imagine that something might go wrong with the U.S. economy in the fairly near future.

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John Gesek John Gesek

DeepSeek Disruption

The stock market was rocked over the past weekend by the announcement of a new artificial intelligence system called DeepSeek, which threatens the business models of the entire U.S. AI industry.

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John Gesek John Gesek

Tariff Trepidation

One of the focal points following the presidential election is the potential for an increase in tariffs applied to goods produced outside the US. Many investors have wondered what this could mean for markets.

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John Gesek John Gesek

Smishing

Learn more about the latest cybersecurity threat (and how to protect yourself).

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John Gesek John Gesek

Tales of Fraud

A recent survey of more than 1,000 financial planners asked whether they had experienced any attempted or real scams with their clients. Many had, and reported varying levels of success dealing with what appears to be a dramatic upsurge in sophisticated ways to separate people from their assets.

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John Gesek John Gesek

Is AI Making it Easier for Workers to Cheat?

A recent comic strip shows two different office workers in two different cubicles, talking about the great benefits of artificial intelligence on their working lives—and on the company’s productivity as a whole.

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John Gesek John Gesek

The Crisis on Top of the Crisis

The catastrophic wildfires in Los Angeles represent a terrible human tragedy, and for many homeowners, it will become an awful financial tragedy as well, as thousands will discover that there’s a big gap between what their homes are worth and what they’ll actually get from insurance companies to rebuild on top of the ash.

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John Gesek John Gesek

Market Expectations in Response to a Trump Presidency

The early market reaction to the election has been staggering and investors are basically returning to the same Trump playbook from 2016: the reflation trade is back. Yields are blowing out with the curve steepening and real rates driving nearly 2/3 of the widening. The Dollar is strengthening, the VIX is crashing lower, cyclical stocks are roaring, led by financials, and the US is outperforming the rest of world. Lower priced small cap stocks are having their time, leading to a broad-based surge in the equity markets.

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John Gesek John Gesek

Increasingly Flighty Careers

If you think people are job-hopping more frequently today than any previous era in the American economy, you’re right. In the good old days of 1983, a little over half of male American workers age 40-44 had worked for the same employer for ten years or more. Job stability was common. Today, only 32.5% of this cohort have worked with any one employer for a full decade.

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John Gesek John Gesek

Tamed Inflation

Two years ago, it seemed that the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% inflation for the U.S. economy was a mission impossible, and people were laughing at the Fed chairman’s comment that we were experiencing ‘transitory inflation.’ But it turns out that the 2020-2023 spike in inflation actually WAS transitory, even if it lasted longer than the Fed economists seem to have expected.

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